According to Khac Hieu
Investing.com – According to DeCrypt, JPMorgan (NYSE:) has just poured cold water on hopes for a bull run in the cryptocurrency market in 2024. In their 2024 market outlook report, analysts from America’s largest bank has forecast a “cautious” outlook.
JPMorgan said that the halving event “has largely been factored into the current bitcoin price.” Analysts said the event and the impact on bitcoin supply were “predictable.”
The analysis team argues that based on bitcoin’s current hash rate and mining difficulty, the cost of producing one bitcoin will increase from about $22,000 to $44,000 after the halving.
traded between $40,000 – $42,000, consistent with a 5% drop in hash rate following the halving. However, JPMorgan believes that this reduction is too low, as about 20% of miners will leave the market because mining costs are too high.
The 2020 halving brought bitcoin prices on par with miners’ production costs. Meanwhile, the current bitcoin price is twice the cost of production, so it is likely that the upcoming halving has largely been factored into the price, according to the report.
Additionally, JPMorgan also thinks Ethereum () could “outperform” bitcoin in 2024 and points out that the EIP-4844 upgrade could be a potential catalyst. The report also warns that it is “too early to get excited” about a full recovery of the decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT markets.
Still maintaining a cautious stance on bitcoin ETF
Analysts from JPMorgan also expressed skepticism about forecasts that bitcoin spot ETFs will bring new inflows to the market. The report cites investor indifference toward approved spot ETFs in Canada and Europe, as well as the possibility that capital will simply be transferred from other bitcoin derivatives to spot ETFs. right.
JPMorgan thinks $2.7 billion worth of capital could leave the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as investors take profits. Analysts say that if this capital flow leaves the cryptocurrency market without moving to other products, the bitcoin price will be under “severe downward pressure”.
According to a survey by investment bank Needham, licensed investment advisors (RIAs) could be the main driver behind spot bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, individual customers have almost no interest in investing in cryptocurrency, according to CNBC.
Needham surveyed 20 financial advisors, 75 Coinbase (NASDAQ:) users, and 200 individuals. The results show that spot bitcoin ETFs are the most accepted by financial advisors, as this product is not currently available in the US. “In our view, the main driver of bitcoin ETFs will be RIAs,” said John Todaro, an analyst at Needham.
“Almost half of advisors responded that they currently do not provide bitcoin services, or would instruct clients to buy bitcoin on exchanges themselves. Therefore, we believe that RIA will be the channel that attracts most new investors,” he said.
However, most advisors expect that only 5 to 10% of clients will hold a spot bitcoin ETF. “Advisors are now finding that most clients are not interested in bitcoin and its ETFs,” Mr. Todaro said. However, all expect interest to increase if bitcoin prices continue to rise.
However, the survey also shows that investors who do not currently buy bitcoin will find it difficult to buy this currency, even if the ETF is approved. “Only 11% of respondents who have never bought bitcoin said they were very likely, or somewhat likely, to buy a bitcoin ETF.”
At the same time, cryptocurrency holders also prefer to buy bitcoin directly through exchanges rather than through an ETF.
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