(TBTCO) – Updated information from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) last week showed that credit has revealed an acceleration move and is forecast to reach more than 19 million billion VND in 2023. Meanwhile, the market After a hot rise, gold has shown some signs of cooling down, however the price level is still quite high.
Credits reveal signs of acceleration
Updated data from the State Bank shows that credit growth by November 30, 2023 will reach a growth rate of about 9.15% compared to the beginning of 2023. According to previously announced data also from the State Bank, credit growth By November 22, 2023, it will reach 8.21%. Accordingly, comparing these two numbers together, in just the last 8 days of November, credit growth increased by 0.94%.
Meanwhile, December 2023 is also expected to be a period of acceleration because according to annual practice, the last month often has a higher growth rate than other months of the year. The SBV forecasts that the credit scale by the end of 2023 will likely reach over 19 million billion VND. In addition, December 2023 is also the time when the market expects that the new credit growth extension decision (room) of the State Bank of Vietnam just issued at the end of November 2023 will have an effect.
|December is usually the period when credit increases rapidly during the year. Photo: TL
|Discussion on credit ratings in credit risk management Rising bad debt, shrinking consumer credit and the risk of black credit
There will be new, more drastic solutions
Last week, a notable event related to the currency market was the Prime Minister’s meeting with the banking industry and businesses to discuss solutions to overcome difficulties in credit growth.
At this conference, SBV leaders also proposed a number of new solutions to continue to remove difficulties in credit capital for the economy.
Expectations from room expansion
Allowing room expansion from the end of November 2023 is expected by the market to help promote faster credit growth because in recent times general credit has grown slowly, but credit growth has been uneven among banks.
Some credit institutions have quite high growth, some credit institutions have low growth, even negative growth. Accordingly, credit institutions whose credit balance has so far reached 80% of the announced credit target will be proactively added to the increased limit based on the 2022 ranking, while giving additional priority to Credit institutions focus credit on priority areas.
The addition of this limit is the initiative of the State Bank and it is not necessary for credit institutions to request or request additional amounts.
Mr. Dao Minh Tu – Deputy Governor of the State Bank said that he will direct credit institutions to reduce costs to reduce lending interest rates and cut fees to support businesses and people to recover. and develop production and business.
In addition, the banking industry also accelerated the progress of building and organizing the implementation of restructuring plans associated with handling bad debts in the period 2021 – 2025 according to the guidance of the State Bank; Implement preventive measures to minimize the arising of new bad debts.
Exchange rates fluctuate slightly
The central exchange rate opened the new week at 23,939 VND/USD, after some slight fluctuations during the week, ending the week at 23,951 VND/USD, an increase of 12 VND per dollar compared to the beginning of the week.
Meanwhile, the listed exchange rate announced by Vietcombank increased in the first days of the week, but then decreased at the end of the week. Specifically, the listed selling rate at this bank on Monday, December 4 was 24,405 VND per dollar, then increased continuously in the previous 2 days and decreased in the last 2 days of the week. At the end of the week, the selling exchange rate at Vietcombank was 24,400 VND per dollar.
Currently, domestic factors show that the exchange rate is still supported by macro information, helping the foreign currency supply remain quite abundant. The trade balance of goods in November 2023 had a surplus of 1.28 billion USD. Overall, for the first 11 months of 2023, the trade balance of goods had a surplus of 25.83 billion USD (same period last year, trade surplus of 10.3 billion USD). ).
Meanwhile in the international financial market, the DXY index measuring the strength of the US Dollar is still only around 103 points, showing that the US Dollar is still weak in the current context.
|Gold is often more suitable for storage needs than short-term speculative needs. Photo: TL
Gold price is going through a hot period
Gold prices have passed the hot period, however, world and domestic price developments are somewhat different as world gold prices dropped sharply at the beginning of the week after reaching a peak, while domestic gold prices decreased but not much.
On Monday, the world gold price increased sharply and reached a peak when trading above 2,100 USD/ounce. However, after that the gold price turned down and although it recovered slightly at the end of the week, it was only at 2,045.3 USD/ounce, much lower than the previously established peak.
Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the price of SJC 9999 gold sold in Hanoi at the beginning of the week reached 74.4 million VND/tael sold. In the following days, the domestic gold price also decreased due to the influence of world gold prices, but only decreased slightly and the selling level of SJC 9999 gold on December 8 was still at about 74.1 million VND/month. quantity.
The current context shows that although domestic gold is one of the channels that investors are interested in when bank interest rates fall sharply, gold is not suitable for short-term speculative needs and accordingly. Most recent buyers are investors who want to buy and hold to diversify their asset portfolio.
Therefore, the domestic gold price has not been sold out too much even in the context of a sharp decline in world gold prices. However, the purchasing power of the need to buy and hold gold is usually not large, especially when gold has established a new price level that is quite high compared to mid-2023, so the possibility of gold continuing to increase rapidly will increase. unlikely to happen in the near future.
Regarding collateral requirements when borrowing capital
Discussing problems with collateral when borrowing capital, recently leaders of the State Bank said that in credit granting activities, there are no regulations requiring credit institutions lending to customers to have collateral.
However, according to SBV leaders, banks take note of businesses’ opinions on how to make the lending process both convenient for businesses and strictly guaranteed.
The State Bank also proposed comprehensive solutions such as the need to stimulate investment and consumption, promote economic growth drivers, promote trade promotion, expand export markets, and exploit the domestic market. , improving the business environment, simplifying administrative procedures…