It has been three years since Vietnam’s first quarter GDP has had such good growth since COVID hit.
- Economic growth in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year reached a good level of 5.03% (higher than the growth rate of 4.72% in the first quarter of 2021 and 3.66% in the first quarter of 2020), creating momentum. growth for the next quarters of 2022.
- Total import and export turnover of goods reached 176.35 billion USD, an increase of 14.4% over the same period last year, of which exports increased by 12.9%; Imports increased by 15.9%.
The point that remains to be closely observed is probably INFLATION, the average consumer price index (CPI) in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 1.92% over the same period last year; Core inflation increased by 0.81%. If considered specifically in Vietnam, the goal of keeping IV is difficult, but looking at the world, this is a variable that we may not be able to fully control.
In the latest Worldbank report with the very famous name “COPEING THE STORM”, three dark clouds are pointed out on the horizon as follows:
- The cloud comes from rising US interest rates and tightening monetary policy
- The gloomy cloud comes from China with its real estate and Zero Covid policies
- The dark cloud comes from the Ukraine – Russia and Europe war
These three clouds will rain or storm on economies depending on the openness of the economy with two main issues:
- The economy’s dependence on international trade with the above 3 clouds
- Control capital flows in and out, especially countries that depend on capital flows from the US
And based on such a scenario, world macroeconomics according to the World Bank has lowered the growth outlook and Vietnam, with its import-export openness 2 times greater than GDP, has also been lowered to 5.3% and if it is bad, 4%.
However, after carefully studying the report, it seems that the World Bank has not updated the variables on the COVID situation and the change in government control over economic activities, we are still at 65/ 100 (100 is maximum control from the government) when in fact we have now reopened the economy.
In my personal opinion, I believe more in the scenario of ADB’s 400-page report, which is that GDP will grow by 6.5%.
Such a perspective combined with the recent determination to clean up the financial market continues to confirm the market’s growth trend.
And if you want to know clearly which industries will grow in the second quarter, we know that will be much more attractive than my macro section, then Admin Tran Ngoc Bau will share the details with you in the clip:
How about you? How do you rate inflation? And which industries do you think will grow strongly next quarter?