World economic context
In the world market, Central Banks seem to be close to their target interest rates. However, the possibility of increasing interest rates in the next meetings is still open. Data after China’s opening period has not been as expected.
Vietnam’s economic situation
According to VCBS’s assessment, in general, production conditions still have potential unfavorable factors. However, the service sector continues to grow steadily and become the main growth driver. Accordingly, GDP growth in the first 6 months of the year is forecast to reach 4.18% – 4.39%. The forecast growth figure for 2023 is 5.5% – 6%.
The consumer price index (CPI) in May 2023 increased by 0.01% over the previous month and 2.43% over the same period last year. In 2023, inflationary pressure seems to no longer exist, and inflation may even increase slightly due to signs of weakening consumer demand. Accordingly, this is the basis for the State Bank to implement more flexible monetary policies to support the difficult growth target.
At the end of April, the VND increased in value by 0.44% compared to the USD. At commercial banks, the exchange rate is stable and does not fluctuate much around 23,650 – 23,660 VND/USD. During this period, foreign currency supply is forecast to still show favorable signs compared to the same period. Under favorable conditions, VCBS forecasts that the devaluation of VND against USD could be less than 3% this year.
Deposit interest rates in the banking system in recent months have also quickly cooled down with an average decrease of 80 – 100 points depending on each term. Mobilization and lending interest rates are forecast to continue to decrease further in the near future. More time is needed before credit increases significantly again. The reduction in lending interest rates is delayed and differentiated between sectors.
Government bond market: VCBS forecasts that it is unlikely that interbank interest rates will decrease deeply and remain around the 4% – 4.5% threshold. In the short term, government bond investment channel is still a reasonable choice for institutional investors. In summary, in June, VCBS is inclined to the scenario that yields will move sideways in a small range or decrease slightly.
View details of the June 2023 Strategic Report, please access the “Analysis Report” feature on the TOPI application or visit the website https://online.topi.vn/ .
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