I. Vietnam’s macroeconomics in the second quarter through numbers
General Statistics Office said, GDP in the second quarter of 2022 is estimated to increase by 7.72% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of the second quarter of all years in the period 2011-2021, highest in 10 years. With this increase, GDP in the first 6 months of 2022 is increased to 6.42%, higher than the growth rate of 2.04% in the first 6 months of 2020 and the growth rate of 5.74% in the first 6 months of 2021.
The industrial and construction sector remains The region has the highest growth rate and contributes the most on GDP growth in the first 6 months of the year (increased 7.70%, contributed 48.33%); followed by the service sector (up 6.60%, contributing 46.60%) and the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector (up 2.78%, contributing 5.07%).
On average, in the first 6 months of the year, CPI increased by 2.44% over the same period last year; Core inflation increased by 1.25% – lower than the average CPI (increased by 2.44%).
Domestic gasoline prices increased by 51.83% over the same period last year, affecting the overall CPI increased by 1.87 percentage points. In addition, domestic gas prices fluctuate according to world prices. In the first 6 months of this year, gas prices increased by 25.9% over the same period last year, contributing to the overall CPI. increased by 0.38 percentage points. The Covid-19 epidemic has been controlled, the demand for eating out at restaurants has increased, so the average price of eating out at home in the first 6 months of this year increased by 3.5% over the same period last year, causing the overall CPI to increase. increased by 0.3 percentage points.
The price of housing maintenance materials in 6 months increased by 7.95% over the same period last year due to the increase in prices of cement, iron, steel, and sand following the price of raw materials and input materials, affecting the overall CPI. increase 0.16 percentage points. Domestic rice prices increased according to export rice prices and increased demand for delicious sticky rice and regular rice during the Lunar New Year, causing rice prices in the first 6 months of 2022 to increase by 1.09% over the same period last year, causing General CPI increased by 0.03 percentage points.
Producer price index of agricultural, forestry and fishery products for 6 months increased 1.38% compared to compared to the same period last year, the second quarter of 2022 increased by 1.84% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 2.18% compared to the same period last year. Producer price index of industrial products for 6 months increased by 4.75%compared to the same period last year; second quarter 2022 increased by 2.1% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 5.11% compared to the same period last year.
The six-month service producer price index increased by 2.83% over the same period last year; The second quarter of 2022 increased by 1.25% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 3.57% compared to the same period last year. The price index of raw materials, fuel, and materials used for production in 6 months increased by 6.04% over the same period last year; The second quarter of 2022 increased by 2.23% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 6.38% compared to the same period last year.
Investment capital implemented by the whole society in the first 6 months of 2022 from state capital reached 1301.2 trillion increase 9.5%.
- Total registered foreign investment capital entering Vietnam as of June 20, 2022 includes: Newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and value of capital contributions and share purchases by foreign investors reached nearly 14.03 billion USD, decreased 8.1% compared to the same period last year.
- Foreign direct investment capital implemented in Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2022 is estimated to reach 10.06 billion USDup 8.9% Compared to the same period last year, this is the level Highest increase in the first 6 months of the year in the past 5 years.
Total exports and imports goods reached 371.17 billion USD, up 16.4% compared to the same period last year, including exports increased by 17.3%; Imports increased by 15.5%. Balance of trade estimated goods for the first 6 months of the year trade surplus of 710 million USD
- Export turnover of goods in 6 months is estimated at 185.94 billion USD, increased by 17.3% compared to the same period last year; June 2022 is estimated to reach 32.65 billion USD, an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous month; The second quarter of 2022 is estimated to reach 96.8 billion USD, increased by 21% compared to the same period last year and increased by 8.7% compared to the first quarter of 2022. About structure export commodity group First 6 months of 2022, product group processing industry accounts for the most with 88.7%.
- Import turnover of goods in 6 months is estimated at 185.23 billion USD, up 15.5% over the same period last year; June 2022 is estimated to reach 32.37 billion USD, down 0.8% compared to the previous month; The second quarter of 2022 is estimated to reach 97.6 billion USD, increased by 15.7% compared to the same period last year and increased by 11.3% compared to the first quarter of 2022. About structure group of imported goods, group of production materials accounts for the most with 94%.
II. Method to calculate Vietnam’s GDP
In Vietnam, before 1993, accounting for the national economy was organized according to the economic balance system – MPS (Material Product System).
Since 1993, Vietnam has applied a national accounts system instead of the national economic balance sheet.
The United Nations Statistics System of National Accounts offers three methods of compiling gross domestic product (GDP), including: Production method, usage method, income method
- Usage method – Demand side
GDP = Final consumption (C,G) + Investment (I) + Import-export gap (EM)
- Production Methods – Supply Side
GDP = Added value of economic sectors + Product taxes – Product subsidies
- Income method:
GDP = Employee income from production + Production tax + Depreciation of fixed assets used in production + Production surplus
So how will Vietnam calculate GDP? GDP data Quarterly and yearly are compiled following two methods at the same time To be production methods and methods used.
In there, production methods To be main method Because information collected from production is often more accurate and complete than information about demand used to compile GDP according to the method used. Calculating GDP using two methods and from different information sources (from the production side and from the consumption side) is The results will not be completely identical.
The GDP compilation results from the usage method may be higher or lower than the results compiled using the production method and this difference is included in the error (according to regulations). The allowable error rate is within +/-5%)”, According to Director General of the General Statistics Office Nguyen Thi Huong.
Here are two ways to calculate GDP using two production and consumption methods:
2017, from Ministry of Planning and Investment data shows GDP from supply side and demand side of three months, six months and nine months are completely different. Of course, all differences between the two methods of calculating GDP are included in what is called the margin of error. But it’s important to say that quarterly, six-month, nine-month GDP growth are completely different.
Currently, the General Statistics Office is compiling and announcing GDP by production method and usage method by quarter and year. GDP according to the income method is calculated and announced every 5 years when there are sufficient sources of information from the census and surveys to collect information to create inter-sectoral balance sheets.