Market commentary: Summary of May
The market movement in May was completely opposite to the movement a month earlier, the VNIndex overcame the prolonged inertia of correction and recovered, closing at 1,075.11 points, +2.48% MoM, especially Trading liquidity improved positively with total trading value reaching 245.5 trillion VND, +9.3% MoM.
Market movements recovered slowly with the leadership of the banking industry group. Notably, the index formed a tight trading margin around the range of 1,060 – 1,075 points, absorbing information about the SBV’s third operating interest rate reduction of the year. After 2 weeks of accumulation, successfully surpassing the long-term dynamic resistance level (MA200), this is the foundation factor for the market to continue to recover and attract outside cash flow.
Recommended trading strategies
DSC assesses that the market is still moving in a sideways trading range, investors need to get used to the rolling waves rather than expecting the market to enter a big wave in the current unclear macro context. . Therefore, the strategy of averaging increasing prices, or increasing the proportion of the portfolio gradually when the index continuously increases, is not a priority. In June, DSC recommended the strategy of “realizing partial profits or trading to slightly reduce the proportion in June”.
Regarding market scenarios, DSC offers two main scenarios as follows:
- Scenario 1: The upward momentum ends early (40%). In this case, VNIndex may adjust to the same 1,050 points when the opening trend position (1,080 points) is violated. However, DSC evaluates this probability as lower because VNIndex has formed a series of short and medium-term pressure absorption sessions before entering the sprint phase. Currently, active buying positions are dominant.
- Scenario 2: Channel destination on parallel channel. The index approaches the peak area of 2023 (1,120 points), forming a cumulative margin for the upward trend to continue, moving up to 1,150 – 1,200 points. In the short term, most industry index groups are in an “overbought” state, leading to accumulation margins that may face adjustment pressure, adjusting the balance zone anchored above the “gap up” of 1,090 points, forming a “buffer”. ” for the upward momentum to continue.
View details of the June 2023 Strategic Report, please access the “Analysis Report” feature on the TOPI application or visit the website https://online.topi.vn/ .
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