VinaCapital: Falling interest rates are affecting both real estate and stocks

(TBTCO) – VinaCapital has just released an analysis report stating that the decline in mortgage interest rates has helped boost transactions at a number of recent prominent real estate opening events, thereby attracting significant attention and attention. improve investor sentiment.

In the real estate sector, about 80% of the apartments of Khang Dien House (KDH) opened for sale at the mid-range segment project “Privia” were purchased right at the opening event. In addition, 80% of the apartments of the Glory Heights project of Vinhomes (VHM) were sold, and 80% of the Akari project of Nam Long (NLG) were also sold quickly.

Note that these projects are all located in the peripheral districts of the city. HCM (District 9 and Binh Tan District). However, according to VinaCapital’s observations, transaction activities in suburban areas (further from the city center) are still weak.

VinaCapital: Falling interest rates are affecting both real estate and stocks
VinaCapital: Falling interest rates are affecting both real estate and stocks. Photo: TL
Stock and currency markets in 2024 are divided by interest rates and the US economic recession

In addition, the price of new apartments offered for sale in the city. HCM and Hanoi remained unchanged compared to the same period last year. To sell apartments, real estate investors are currently offering mortgage support packages to buyers (extended grace period…) and other incentives.

At the same time, the recent slight growth in credit available to real estate investors will help them increase their development activities. Vietnam’s latest credit growth figures show that demand for home loans is still weak, but this could change as mortgage interest rates have fallen in recent months.

With the stock market, cash flow has shifted from banks to stocks earlier than real estate, shown in the 20% increase in VN-Index in the second half of 2022 and August 2023, and an increase of 50% in the second half of 2022 and August 2023. % average trading volume (ADTV) reached 900 million USD/day during that time. The shift of investors’ cash flow out of bank deposits and into stocks happened quite quickly in early 2023 and is a useful early indicator for the performance of VN-Index in the second half of 2023.

Real estate investors’ cash flow shifts take longer than stocks, mainly because buying physical assets is not necessarily a “hot investment.”

Two early indicators that the most difficult period for real estate is over are:

The volume of land transactions, the most speculative segment in the market, has increased significantly recently.

Some high-end real estate in the city center. HCM and Hanoi increased prices for apartments that have ownership documents or clear ownership. Real estate prices in the city center are currently high, so the recent price increase is largely due to wealthy investors taking money out of banks when deposit rates fall and buying real estate.

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